Have you ever wondered what the next big stock would be? Would you trust an ‘expert’ to provide you with forecasts of where the market was headed? Would you pay good money for these forecasts? If so, would you rely on them? Many investors are willing to pay for the services of active fund managers, who regard themselves as ‘experts’ in the field of stock picking. The sheer complexity of information in the market place might lead a person to engage someone to look into their crystal ball and tell them where to put their money. A recent article in The Economist suggests that the need to do this is more psychological than practical. Click HERE to read the full article. It may be that the active fund management industry survives because investors are not satisfied with the answer that the future is not predictable. More often, the conclusions of these forecasters can only be justified by assuming that the laws of arithmetic have been suspended for the convenience of those who choose to pursue careers as active managers.